We are all familiar with the protracted Ukrainian war, once thought to be a rapid advancement by the Russians, now looking like a science fiction version of the Somme. Further, we've witnessed the US attack on Venezuela. Both of these incidents portend a further action by an uninvolved party - China - but perhaps not in the way you think.
Both Ukraine and Venezuela are targets of a large nearby neighbor who nurses anger or grievances and thinks that taking ownership or at least overtly influencing the politics of its neighbor will resolve old disputes or open new opportunities. The differences are that Russia has already invaded Crimea and continues to try to win in Ukraine, while the US under Donald Trump has decapitated the Maduro regime but seems to have no follow-on plan in place, mostly to take possession of the largest oil reserves on the planet.
All the while, China watches these two actions carefully, as the last large country with an open and long-running grievance against its neighbor, Taiwan. What should China take away from these two aggressive moves by other leading economies?
In the past, if a country such as Russia went to war with a neighbor, the rest of the world would rise in response, and often go to war to oppose such one-sided aggression. The Russian war against Ukraine has taught everyone a couple of lessons:
- Corporately, we've seen this movie before and don't have the stomach to place our own lives at risk
- The Ukraine, while a sovereign country, doesn't seem valuable enough for others to fight for
- Russia has enough raw materials and energy to at least assuage the rest of Europe to avoid fighting
So, what lessons will the fight for Ukraine and the decapitation of Maduro send to China about Taiwan?
If I were in the Chinese leadership, I might reasonably conclude that while there are military organizations like NATO or ASEAN, they may not have the commitment to go to war over targets like Ukraine, Venezuela or Taiwan.
Clearly, the US didn't intervene in Ukraine. Yes, we sent some munitions and funds, but we've now shuffled most of that off on the Canadians and Europeans. In the America First (Original Version) we did not plan to spend blood and treasure on these kinds of fights or on regime change. Now, in America First (Revised Version), we will go to a short-term fight to change a leadership we don't like with countries and militaries that do not provide a match for our own. It appears we've learned nothing from the Colin Powell - you broke it, you fix it - mantra from the Iraq war. Trump and his allies don't even pretend to have a plan in Venezuela and have threatened Colombia and Greenland, at least this week.
What lesson should the Chinese leadership take away from the US decapitation of Taiwan? There will be stern discussions in the UN, and some allies will grumble but nothing will happen. No real action will be taken.
With the evidence that Europe did not fight for the Ukraine, and aggression was the better choice for Putin, and Trump's America First investment approach and his predilection for decapitating the rulers of other countries, what must China be thinking about Taiwan?
Would Trump go to war for Taiwan? Would we even have the option? I doubt very much that Europe would fight for Taiwan, and while South Korea, Japan and the Philippines would voice concern, none of them could stand up to China.
It's been said that the Chinese play the long game very well. But when you can start a ground war in Europe, and the US can meddle in other countries' sovereignty and no one blinks, what precedents are we setting and what signals are we sending on Taiwan?
And, just to be clear, the vast majority of semiconductor for many manufacturers, including NVIDA and Apple, are produced by TSMC, which is headquartered in Taiwan. So, the US goes to Venezuela for oil, and China will go to Taiwan for technology. Talk about fighting the last war...
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